NRCC is starting to get worried. Subscription-only Roll Call reported today on recent NRCC polling for Republican incumbents for House of Representatives. Tom Reynolds, NRCC chairman, released a list of the all the incumbents for whom the committee polled. To the surprise of many, Shelley Moore Capito was on the list of incumbents whose districts were polled.
This indicated a general unease in the Republican ranks. But this is more than a general unease for Capito. She's the lone congressional Republican from WV. What people in Washington seem to forget every couple of years is that WV is a Democratic State, whose potential for the party is hidden in the presidential results for 2000 and 2004 elections. The punditry has tried for the last 6 years to make this categorical phrase of "Blue State/Red State", but all that amounts is what states are really liberal or really conservative. What is missing from this analysis is what party has the control and resources to take on an incumbent. Capito is lucky that she is still in there after 6 years. The last two re-election campaigns featured a rematch from Capito's first election with an incompetent, uncharismatic trial lawyer and a political newcomer without much State Democratic Party support.
In 2006, the change is stark. Mike Callaghan, supported by the WV Dems, is experienced in government, charismatic and speaks the language of your average WV. He understands the connection between being a true Democrat. No one has looked at these intangibles when discussing the race in WV-02. Because of that lack of understanding, pundits and Republcians have glanced at this race and quickly dismissed its potential to be a win for the Democrats in 2006. Callaghan has more just numbers to win, and he is out there proving it everday.
Here's more from my post on MyDD
"For West Virginians it is not so surprising, for the most part Washington insiders have never truly understood the real political dynamics of WV and everyone has misunderstood the strength of Mike Callaghan, the Democratic challenger. This poll is only the beginning for a heated campaign for the WV-02. The fact that the NRCC doesn't even want to release the results proves that Capito is not the strong incumbent that everyone in Washington and the punditry previously believed.
Mike Callaghan is not a political newcomer without party support unlike Capito's last challenger. In fact, he served as the WV State Democratic Party chairman for two years. Callaghan's legitimacy comes from being a federal prosecutor and working as Secretary of Department of Environmental Protection in WV. He's not unknown and untested but he is underestimated. Until recently Republicans, in Washington and in West Virginia, by the professional pundits and big-name bloggers obessessed with Senate Primaries in Blue States have been overlooking this campaign. This is all beginning to change."